An intelligence report has warned that criminal herders are shifting their focus to the southern part of the country, creating a national dimension for the pastoral crisis in Nigeria.
The report, obtained by newsmen on Thursday, is titled “A National Emergency: The Escalating Crisis of Pastoral Violence in Nigeria.”
The report by a think thank, SBM Intelligence, reads in part: “The geographical pattern of pastoral violence in Nigeria paints a troubling picture of relentless expansion. Between 2019 and 2025, the North-Central zone remained the most severely affected region, with Benue State enduring over 200 documented attacks, cementing its grim reputation as the epicenter of the crisis.”
“Neighbouring Plateau State followed closely with 150 incidents. Their shared border has transformed into a deadly conflict zone, exemplified by the May 2023 massacre in Mangu, which left 80 people dead, followed seven months later by the Christmas Eve atrocity in Bokkos, which claimed 140 lives.”
“The violence spread outward along predictable pathways. Kaduna in the Northwest recorded concerning numbers of attacks, while Adamawa in the Northeast displayed increasing vulnerability.”
The report warns that recent developments show that no region is immune.
“More alarmingly, the conflict shows signs of spreading southwards, with sporadic but intensifying outbreaks in Enugu and Oyo, serving as clear warnings that no region is immune.”
“This geographical progression reveals a disturbing trend: what began as localised clashes in the Middle Belt has evolved into a nationwide security emergency, following the migration routes of herders and the illegal trade in weapons.”
“The concentration of violence along the Benue-Plateau-Kaduna axis suggests these states have borne the brunt of a systematic campaign of territorial displacement, while incidents in southern regions indicate the conflict’s dangerous expansion into new areas.”
“The data underscores how environmental pressures and weak governance have transformed traditional grazing disputes into a complex security challenge affecting nearly all of Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.”
For example, newsmen earlier reported that armed men, believed to be herders, were accused of breaking into private hostels at Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), Oyo State stealing phones and other valuables, and allegedly killing two individuals.
Newsmen learned that the suspected herders invaded communities around the Stadium Area of Ogbomoso town in Oyo State last Monday, burgling many hotels that were accommodating thousands of LAUTECH students.
Some of the affected students who spoke to newsmen said the suspected herders broke into rooms and took away students’ belongings, primarily expensive phones and other gadgets.
The students said the assailants were armed with dangerous weapons, including guns and machetes.
